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Author Topic: Herd Immunity for JH and Corona? NYTimes article  (Read 971 times)

Offline itsit

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Herd Immunity for JH and Corona? NYTimes article
« on: July 09, 2020, 01:46:11 PM »
 Check out this NYTimes article on the possibility of us having herd immunity based on how many antibody positives have come from testing in this neighborhood. Could this be real?
That would be sweet but could hardly count on it at this point.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/09/nyregion/nyc-coronavirus-antibodies.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
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Offline dssjh

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Re: Herd Immunity for JH and Corona? NYTimes article
« Reply #1 on: July 09, 2020, 02:47:30 PM »
i'm unconvinced, largely because the jury is still out on the possibility of re-infection. it would be wonderful if so, though.
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Offline Bill

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Re: Herd Immunity for JH and Corona? NYTimes article
« Reply #2 on: July 09, 2020, 08:19:48 PM »
"Herd immunity" is a pseudo-scientific theory aimed at getting everyone back to work and school while accepting deaths in the millions. The idea that it would protect one neighborhood in Queens is absurd. Whether the anti-bodies protect you from re-infection, nobody knows. What the article does indicate is how widespread the infection has been in JH, Corona and Elmhurst.
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Online lalochezia

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Re: Herd Immunity for JH and Corona? NYTimes article
« Reply #3 on: July 09, 2020, 11:34:39 PM »
Maybe best not to vote for people who think of you as a "herd"

(Frankie Boyle)
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Offline abcdefghijk

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Re: Herd Immunity for JH and Corona? NYTimes article
« Reply #4 on: July 10, 2020, 09:05:20 AM »
Quote from: Bill on July 09, 2020, 08:19:48 PM
"Herd immunity" is a pseudo-scientific theory aimed at getting everyone back to work and school while accepting deaths in the millions. The idea that it would protect one neighborhood in Queens is absurd. Whether the anti-bodies protect you from re-infection, nobody knows. What the article does indicate is how widespread the infection has been in JH, Corona and Elmhurst.

Nailed it.
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Offline JHResident

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Re: Herd Immunity for JH and Corona? NYTimes article
« Reply #5 on: July 10, 2020, 10:08:32 AM »
Herd immunity is not pseudo-science but 68% infection is probably not enough to confer herd immunity. I've seen articles that think 80 or 90 % infection would be required to stop the virus spread to the uninfected. And as pointed out, we don't know how long immunity would last. If it's permanent, we might be able to resume living normally. If immunity only lasts 3 months or so, we'll live with this until all the people who are severely affected by this have died.  There is no guarantee of a cure or vaccine. There is so much we don't know yet that all of our politicians are playing Russian Roulette with our lives.  The worst case scenario is that this virus is like Dengue Fever where those who seem immune during the first wave of infection become the most severe cases during the second wave.
Johns Hopkins has an article explaining herd immunity if you'd like more information:
https://www.jhsph.edu/covid-19/articles/achieving-herd-immunity-with-covid19.html
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Offline CaptainFlannel

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Re: Herd Immunity for JH and Corona? NYTimes article
« Reply #6 on: July 10, 2020, 10:20:36 AM »
it's about a possibility, not an article about a confirmed fact about the antibodies and immunity. All it really says is iF it turns out the antibodies provide immunity, and IF it turns out the immunity lasts a long time, and IF it turns out the percentage of positive tests for antibodies translates to the general population in the neighborhood (which I think is questionable since it seems like those who are seeking antibody tests right now have reason to believe they were infected but were unable to be tested), then MAYBE the neighborhood will fare better if there's a second wave.

So sure, maybe. Or maybe not if all those premises turn out to be wrong.

I probably tell at least one person a week that it's not a certainty I have immunity because I had Covid in April. I don't know why people think this since it's been pretty well covered that it's new virus, so we don't know that much about the immune response to it.
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