Matt:
I am glad you framed your question specifically for Jackson Heights. Since New York real estate market is a constellation of mico-sectors, Jackson Heights is on of them.
It would be pure speculation to speak on HOW it may be affected, but I it will be factual to state WHAT will affect it. While COVID fog keeps us all home, real estate industry and apartment sales are at a standstill. All activity, with exception of remote servicing aspect of deals already in progress are at full stop.
Now on Jackson Heights:
Question is WHAT will affect Jackson Heights market after the COVID fog clears and we can resume life as usual.
Since nearly 90% of all Jackson Heights owned residential inventory is comprised of primary coop residences, we will need to see a mass selloff of personal homes. In order for prices to begin to drop we will need to see an unusually high spike in available inventory for a period of Four plus (4+) months and a trend of increase in inventory while these properties sit on the market.
Important to remember, that qualification for most of Jackson Heights coops has been carefully buffered for owners to be able to withstand temporary job loss and debt to income ratios are kept low enough not to exceed comfortable housing payment levels. Some level of acceptable reserves are also accounted for and loan to value requirements assure positive equity in any market fluctuation (yes coop owners have more skin in the game). Effectively, Jackson Heights property ownership has been built to withstand shock to the economy.
There may be potential sellers right now, who were about to go to market and did not, potential sellers who are now in the process of deciding to sell, because they need more space or had life changing event. They will inevitably be the first wave of properties to come to market. Beyond that, we can only be predicting a panic sell-off.
I, personally, do NOT predict a panic sell-off in Jackson Heights! Once COVID passes, and have no doubt it will, we will see improvement in the economy and any panic selling thoughts anyone may have right now, will be a thing of a past.
As COVID goes on, I am working on two closings, which are still on track and send out a contract, which was negotiated before we received a mandate to stay home. Work will still get done.
I wish everyone strength, perseverance and I look forward to seeing you on the other side of this! I also hope the next post I write, will validate my personal opinion, which I base on my personal knowledge of folks who have made Jackson Heights home, how much they love and value it.
Warmly,
Armen